Renting vs. owning: Can you be financially secure without buying a home?

I don’t expect real estate prices to rise at the same 6.75% rate we have seen over the past 10 years, so instead, let’s say prices rise at 4% per year. Some people may think that number is high, while others may think it is low. But if you look back at U.S. residential real estate appreciation since 1890, which looks to be similar here in Canada, prices have only risen by a bit more than the rate of inflation, so even 4% may be generous. Nevertheless, assuming 4% growth is correct, the condo would be worth $740,122 after 10 years. Home equity, representing the condo’s value minus the mortgage balance, would be $471,613.

What if someone could rent the same $500,000 condo for $2,000 per month (a number that might seem high or low depending on where you live)? Compared to making monthly mortgage payments on that same property, the renter would be saving $559 per month. Their rent would rise over time, say, at 2% per year, so the $599 per month of savings would decrease over time.

Now, let’s say they invested their initial $100,000 (the amount that would have been used on a down payment) and $559 a month (a number that would decrease as rent increased) into a tax-free savings account (TFSA). If they earned 4% per year on their investment, they would have $204,396 after 10 years. The buyer, with $471,613 of home equity, is clearly better off than the renter, right?

The problem here is you cannot just compare the mortgage payment to the monthly rent. Owning has other incremental costs that might include:

Property tax: $200 monthly (not ap
Condo insurance: $10 or more per month, compared to tenant insurance
Condo fees or repairs: $500 more per month, compared to renting

Property tax rates can vary significantly depending on where you live. And condo fees and repairs can vary, depending on the age and amenities in the building. But if we added another $710 per month from the categories above to the renter’s monthly investment deposits, the renter would have $319,117 accumulated after 10 years. The same tax-free TFSA return of 4% is assumed, perhaps in their spouse’s TFSA.

The owner would still have 471,613 in home equity. So, owning is still better than renting, right?

Let’s not forget there are costs to buy and sell real estate. It could cost $10,000 in land transfer tax, legal fees and other costs to buy, and another $40,000 to sell after 10 years. If the renter added these amounts to their investments, they would be at $373,919. The buyer is still ahead of the renter with $471,613, but as you can see, the gap is closer.